Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 25th, 2023

Tim Lacroix • January 25, 2023

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 25 basis points, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

January 25, 2023

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 4½%, with the Bank Rate at 4¾% and the deposit rate at 4½%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Global inflation remains high and broad-based. Inflation is coming down in many countries, largely reflecting lower energy prices as well as improvements in global supply chains. In the United States and Europe, economies are slowing but proving more resilient than was expected at the time of the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). China’s abrupt lifting of COVID-19 restrictions has prompted an upward revision to the growth forecast for China and poses an upside risk to commodity prices. Russia’s war on Ukraine remains a significant source of uncertainty. Financial conditions remain restrictive but have eased since October, and the Canadian dollar has been relatively stable against the US dollar.

The Bank estimates the global economy grew by about 3½% in 2022, and will slow to about 2% in 2023 and 2½% in 2024. This projection is slightly higher than October’s.

In Canada, recent economic growth has been stronger than expected and the economy remains in excess demand. Labour markets are still tight: the unemployment rate is near historic lows and businesses are reporting ongoing difficulty finding workers. However, there is growing evidence that restrictive monetary policy is slowing activity, especially household spending. Consumption growth has moderated from the first half of 2022 and housing market activity has declined substantially. As the effects of interest rate increases continue to work through the economy, spending on consumer services and business investment are expected to slow. Meanwhile, weaker foreign demand will likely weigh on exports. This overall slowdown in activity will allow supply to catch up with demand.

The Bank estimates Canada’s economy grew by 3.6% in 2022, slightly stronger than was projected in October. Growth is expected to stall through the middle of 2023, picking up later in the year. The Bank expects GDP growth of about 1% in 2023 and about 2% in 2024, little changed from the October outlook.

Inflation has declined from 8.1% in June to 6.3% in December, reflecting lower gasoline prices and, more recently, moderating prices for durable goods. Despite this progress, Canadians are still feeling the hardship of high inflation in their essential household expenses, with persistent price increases for food and shelter. Short-term inflation expectations remain elevated. Year-over-year measures of core inflation are still around 5%, but 3-month measures of core inflation have come down, suggesting that core inflation has peaked.

Inflation is projected to come down significantly this year. Lower energy prices, improvements in global supply conditions, and the effects of higher interest rates on demand are expected to bring CPI inflation down to around 3% in the middle of this year and back to the 2% target in 2024.

With persistent excess demand putting continued upward pressure on many prices, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate by a further 25 basis points. The Bank’s ongoing program of quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of the policy rate. If economic developments evolve broadly in line with the MPR outlook, Governing Council expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases. Governing Council is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target, and remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 8, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on April 12, 2023.

Read the January 25th, 2023 Monetary Policy Report.

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Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 28th, 2026

By Tim Lacroix • January 28, 2026

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2¼%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario January 28, 2026 The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The outlook for the global and Canadian economies is little changed relative to the projection in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). However, the outlook is vulnerable to unpredictable US trade policies and geopolitical risks. Economic growth in the United States continues to outpace expectations and is projected to remain solid, driven by AI-related investment and consumer spending. Tariffs are pushing up US inflation, although their effect is expected to fade gradually later this year. In the euro area, growth has been supported by activity in service sectors and will get additional support from fiscal policy. China’s GDP growth is expected to slow gradually, as weakening domestic demand offsets strength in exports. Overall, the Bank expects global growth to average about 3% over the projection horizon. Global financial conditions have remained accommodative overall. Recent weakness in the US dollar has pushed the Canadian dollar above 72 cents, roughly where it had been since the October MPR. Oil prices have been fluctuating in response to geopolitical events and, going forward, are assumed to be slightly below the levels in the October report. US trade restrictions and uncertainty continue to disrupt growth in Canada. After a strong third quarter, GDP growth in the fourth quarter likely stalled. Exports continue to be buffeted by US tariffs, while domestic demand appears to be picking up. Employment has risen in recent months. Still, the unemployment rate remains elevated at 6.8% and relatively few businesses say they plan to hire more workers. Economic growth is projected to be modest in the near term as population growth slows and Canada adjusts to US protectionism. In the projection, consumer spending holds up and business investment strengthens gradually, with fiscal policy providing some support. The Bank projects growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, broadly in line with the October projection. A key source of uncertainty is the upcoming review of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement. CPI inflation picked up in December to 2.4%, boosted by base-year effects linked to last winter’s GST/HST holiday. Excluding the effect of changes in taxes, inflation has been slowing since September. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have eased from 3% in October to around 2½% in December. Inflation was 2.1% in 2025 and the Bank expects inflation to stay close to the 2% target over the projection period, with trade-related cost pressures offset by excess supply. Monetary policy is focused on keeping inflation close to the 2% target while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Governing Council judges the current policy rate remains appropriate, conditional on the economy evolving broadly in line with the outlook we published today. However, uncertainty is heightened and we are monitoring risks closely. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. The Bank is committed to ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 18, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on April 29, 2026. Read the January 28th, 2026 Monetary Report

Mortgages Aren’t One-Size-Fits-All

By Tim Lacroix • January 21, 2026

Why the Cheapest Mortgage Isn’t Always the Smartest Move Some things are fine to buy on the cheap. Generic cereal? Sure. Basic airline seat? No problem. A car with roll-down windows? If it gets you where you're going, great. But when it comes to choosing a mortgage? That’s not the time to cut corners. A “no-frills” mortgage might sound appealing with its rock-bottom interest rate, but what’s stripped away to get you that rate can end up costing you far more in the long run. These mortgages often come with severe limitations—restrictions that could hit your wallet hard if life throws you a curveball. Let’s break it down. A typical no-frills mortgage might offer a slightly lower interest rate—maybe 0.10% to 0.20% less. That could save you a few hundred dollars over a few years. But that small upfront saving comes at the cost of flexibility: Breaking your mortgage early? Expect a massive penalty. Want to make extra payments? Often not allowed—or severely restricted. Need to move and take your mortgage with you? Not likely. Thinking about refinancing? Good luck doing that without a financial hit. Most people don’t plan on breaking their mortgage early—but roughly two-thirds of Canadians do, often due to job changes, separations, relocations, or expanding families. That’s why flexibility matters. So why do lenders even offer no-frills mortgages? Because they know the stats. And they know many borrowers chase the lowest rate without asking what’s behind it. Some banks count on that. Their job is to maximize profits. Ours? To help you make an informed, strategic choice. As independent mortgage professionals, we work for you—not a single lender. That means we can compare multiple products from various financial institutions to find the one that actually suits your goals and protects your long-term financial health. Bottom line: Don’t let a shiny low rate distract you from what really matters. A mortgage should fit your life—not the other way around. Have questions? Want to look at your options? I’d be happy to help. Let’s chat.